The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reshaped the political and military landscape of Syria, amid suspicion of covert support from Ukraine to the rebel advance. As a consequence, Russia is withdrawing their forces from northern Syria while retaining key military bases, and the United States is exploring engagement with new leadership.
Context
In late November 2024, Syrian opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a rapid and coordinated offensive against government-held territories. HTS has operated a quasi-state in the Idlib region for years, collecting taxes and attempting to govern locally. Its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a designated terrorist since 2013, previously led the Nusra Front, which was associated with al-Qaeda and known for sectarian violence.
The military campaign swiftly dismantled key defenses, with rebels capturing Aleppo and Idlib by December 2 and Hama by December 5.
Preliminary Syria update:
Syrian rebels have launched a rapid offensive in the northwest of the country, capturing Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city.
Rebel forces have also advanced southward, reaching the outskirts of Hamah. pic.twitter.com/PAcKehaUOK
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) November 30, 2024
By December 7, HTS forces had reached Damascus, overwhelming government defenses in the capital. The rapid offensive forced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia under Moscow’s protection. The fall of Damascus on December 8 led the opposition to officially declare the conclusion of over five decades of domination by the Assad family.
This rapid and significant shift in power also disrupted the regional alliances anchored by Syria’s partnerships with Iran and Russia. The collapse of Assad’s regime left Russian and the rest of Syrian loyalist forces scrambling to secure strategic assets, including Tartus naval base and Khmeimim Air Base.
Ukrainian Covert Support for Syrian Rebels
Ukrainian intelligence allegedly provided logistical and operational assistance to the Syrian rebels in the months leading up to Assad’s removal. Reports from the Kyiv Post as early as July 2024 allege that Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) was involved in a drone strike against the Kuweires airbase located east of Aleppo, a key Russian military installation.
EXCLUSIVE: Ukrainian HUR Special Forces Deliver Devastating Strike on Russian Base in Syria
Read more on our website: https://t.co/4OTdp9jTtL pic.twitter.com/gtKSMahoss
— KyivPost (@KyivPost) July 31, 2024
The Washington Post also reported that Ukraine sent 20 drone operators and 150 first-person-view drones to HTS in Idlib in the weeks preceding al-Assad’s fall. This assistance was part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to undermine Russia and its allies globally, including in the Middle East.
Attacks beyond the Donbas and Russia’s borders have been more frequent than often recognized, especially since these various secondary battlegrounds serve strategic objectives for Kyiv. By targeting multiple locations and employing low-manpower operations, Ukraine aimed to force Moscow to disperse its forces and resources, thereby stretching them thin, amid the ongoing Russian gains in the Donetsk region. Ultimately, al-Assad’s fall, facilitated by Ukraine-supported HTS, has undermined Russia’s grip on its sphere of influence and weakened its ability to assert itself as a global power, as it withdraws after al-Assad’s fall.
The involvement of Ukrainian operatives in Syria had previously been a source of tension, with Russian officials accusing Ukraine of recruiting Syrian fighters in exchange for drones, though Ukrainian sources denied such claims.
However, it is worth noting that Western intelligence assessed that Ukraine’s support played a modest role in the rebel offensive.
Russia Regroups but Retains Bases
Following Assad’s fall, Russia began pulling back forces and equipment from northern Syria and the Alawite Mountains.
Came across a Russian convoy on the road between #Damascus and #Homs #Syria. Retreating in good order. They turned off to #Tartus presumably to ship out. pic.twitter.com/WlR3tbWm32
— Lindsey Hilsum (@lindseyhilsum) December 13, 2024
Satellite imagery from December 9 showed Antonov AN-124 cargo planes at the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, supposedly preparing to transport equipment. At least one cargo plane reportedly departed for Libya, according to Syrian security officials.
Satellite imagery reveals increased activity at Khmeimim Air Base, with the arrival of two Russian An-124 cargo planes, an Il-76, and smaller aircraft, including three An-32s and one An-72. The planes are seen with their noses open, ready to load heavy equipment. pic.twitter.com/EvAKJqIA7a
— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) December 14, 2024
Despite the withdrawals, Russia continues to operate its two main military installations: the Tartus naval facility and the Khmeimim Air Base, both located on the coast of Syria.
Russian military convoys were observed transferring equipment between the Tartus and Khmeimim bases. Meanwhile, Russian forces remain active at Khmeimim, where jets have been observed in operational hangars. Satellite images also showed three Russian naval vessels, including missile frigates, stationed near Tartus.
Russia continues evacuation from Syria.
Satellite images from Maxar show military equipment concentrated at Russian bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, withdrawn from multiple outposts across Syria. pic.twitter.com/S9mz7LMsoi
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 18, 2024
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed ongoing discussions with HTS leadership and stated that Moscow intends to maintain the bases, citing their role in combating remnants of the Islamic State (ISIS) and international terrorism.
While Russia’s overall presence in Syria has been reduced, Moscow’s discussions with Syria’s new leadership indicate a strategic effort to maintain influence in the region.
US Explores Diplomatic Engagement
The Biden administration has also started engaging with Syrian rebel factions to navigate the country’s uncertain political future. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has initiated communications with regional partners, including Turkey, which has a significant military presence in northwest Syria and supports various rebel groups.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller also confirmed ongoing communication efforts with Syrian factions but declined to specify whether the US has engaged directly with HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani.
HTS, while still designated a terrorist group by the United States, European Union, Turkey, and the United Nations, has recently sought to moderate its image. A senior US official stated that HTS leadership is “saying the right things” but cautioned that it is too early to predict Syria’s trajectory.
Emerging Leadership in Syria
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali has been appointed to supervise state institutions during the transitional period. In coordination with HTS, al-Jalali pledged to ensure the continuity of public services and the safety of all citizens while preparing for a peaceful transfer of power. Al-Jalali has called for free elections and emphasized cooperation with opposition forces to stabilize the country.
The new de-facto ruler of #Syria.
Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali, the prime minister of the (former) regime is now meant to head a transitional government. He appears to be guarded by rebel forces as he leaves his home to head to work. pic.twitter.com/R3dBAHpy2M
— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) December 8, 2024
However, key infrastructure, including telecommunications, remains operational through agreements between HTS and former government officials, solidifying al-Julani’s position as one of the most influential figures in Syria.
Regional Geopolitical Implications
The collapse of Assad’s regime represents a major shift in the Middle East, ending a key stronghold for Iranian and Russian influence. The situation has prompted regional and international actors to recalibrate their strategies. Russia, while regrouping, remains intent on retaining its bases as geopolitical assets.
Bashar al-Assad’s future remains uncertain. Now in Moscow under asylum, rebels may demand his extradition to Syria for trial. Moscow could potentially use his extradition as a bargaining tool to secure favorable terms with the new Syrian leadership, particularly regarding the Tartus naval facility and Khmeimim Air Base, even if it means betraying its former ally.
The Biden administration views this as an opportunity for change while acknowledging the inherent risks. President Joe Biden described the moment as pivotal for the Syrian people, emphasizing the challenges of ensuring stability and curbing extremism. These developments suggest a likelihood of increased US engagement with Syria’s new leadership.
Efforts to address humanitarian and diplomatic concerns have also resumed. US Hostage Affairs Envoy Roger Carstens is currently in Beirut to coordinate efforts to locate Austin Tice, a US journalist missing in Syria for 12 years.
The fall of the Assad regime, facilitated in part by Ukrainian support, marks a significant turning point in Syria’s conflict, ushering in a period of uncertainty and challenging prospects for the country’s future.